Pachter predicts PS3 beat Xbox 360 in April

72 Comments by Justin McElroy May 12th 2008 10:50AM
Filed under: Sony PlayStation 3, Nintendo Wii, Microsoft Xbox 360

Analyst Michael Pachter is sticking to his prediction that Grand Theft Auto IV provided more of a bump to the PS3 than 360 in April, predicting 290,000 in sales for Sony vs. 275,000 for Microsoft's box. It's worth noting though that Pachter also predicted PS3 would top 360 in March, days before the NPD reported an Xbox 360 win.

Now, does any of this mean that either of those systems (or the sales of those systems combined) beat the Wii? No, of course not, don't be ridiculous. Pachter predicts that 600,000 Wiis flew off of shelves in April, likely aided by the release of Mario Kart Wii and the unslakable waggle thirst the general populace seems to have discovered.

Tags: michael-pachter, nintendo, npd, pachter, sales

(Page 1) Reader Comments

Esat Dedezade: May 12th 2008; 10:52AM

*Sigh*

Go White Sox and Go other Team: May 12th 2008; 10:56AM

I predict that George Bush will do something stupid and or evil, and I also predict that the Earth will continue to have a magnetic field.

I also predict that the Clubbies will find a way, somehow to screw up the good season that they are having.

Maxwell Ash: May 12th 2008; 11:21AM

Well, apparently the earth is due to change magnetic polarity soon, and will go through a brief period of not having a magnetic field.

baby sea tuna: May 12th 2008; 11:37AM

Shit! I knew I shouldn't have invested all my money into that compass company...

Haggard: May 12th 2008; 11:56AM

Well, all you have to do is start making compasses with labels the wrong way up, and stockpile them for when the magnetic field flips.

JakubK666 (Ninja Defence Force): May 12th 2008; 1:18PM

[Insert "Statistic" Joke]

Bellerophon: May 12th 2008; 10:56AM

"Analyst..."

I stopped reading right there.

Princess Skittles: May 12th 2008; 11:02AM

[votes up]

StrangeBum: May 12th 2008; 11:58AM

There aren't enough hearts to show just how 'win' your comment is.

mods up

nick: May 12th 2008; 11:02AM

This is the same guy that predicted the PS3 would dominate the Wii.

ThornedVenom (Harley Quinn Defense Force): May 13th 2008; 1:32AM

Pachter = confirmed Sony fanboy.

Paul (PSN: heypaul): May 12th 2008; 11:03AM

To be fair, 360 only outsold PS3 by 5K last month, so he wasn't that wrong. Then again, his prediction was PS3 by 50K. Oops. Plus, he's revising his previous unofficial tally of 500K for PS3 and 350K for 360 in April.

Oh and in before everyone complains that Pachter is always wrong! (Looks up) Nevermind. But in all seriousness, the man's right much more often than he's wrong. 50% accuracy on matters with far more possible outcomes than the flip of a coin is pretty damn impressive by anyone's standards.

Deck: May 12th 2008; 11:04AM

Sure even if it did boost PS3 sales a bit above the 360... as for as GTAIV software sales..we all know that the 360 rocked face. I am guessing at least 60/40

NATO_Duke: May 12th 2008; 11:04AM

....and yet we will all continue to play the consoles we like no matter what a bunch of analysts say.

(BTW - was a good Cubs game last night!)

Matt B: May 12th 2008; 11:07AM

Someone is confused.

http://www.videogaming247.com/2008/05/12/pachter-360-outsold-ps3-in-the-us-last-month/

Just goes to show that you shouldn't believe everything on the internet.

samfish: May 12th 2008; 11:14AM

Well, if Pachter said it, you know it's...er...wrong.

Wasn't there a report that 360's were outselling the PS3 3:1 for GTA4 or something?

Grant: May 12th 2008; 11:16AM

right.
the PS3 needs a killer app launch, GTA doesn't count since it's on both consoles and i think his numbers are wrong, or a price drop for things to really change dramatically.
MGS4 will help, but it's not as universally appealing as GTA was.

JakubK666 (Ninja Defence Force): May 12th 2008; 1:30PM

...and PS3 owners, seriously don't even get started on LBP.

eldee: May 12th 2008; 11:16AM

I seriously think Pachter just pulls guesses out of his ass.. He's just a fortune teller, and his misses are far more numerous than his hits.

unboring: May 12th 2008; 12:21PM

he is actually the most accurate videogame game analyst , there's an article that was on here acouple months ago that showed the accuracy rate of the like top 6 analysts and pachter was by far the leader, thats why they always referance his opinions and hardly any other analysts.

Besides PS3 has outsold 360 in the united states so far in 2008. On a Global level this has been the trend for quite a while now. This is the momentum that was to be expected. It will only continue as we gear towards MGS4 , R2, LBP, KZ2, HAZE, ect ect.

Two of my friends bought PS3s for GTA4, but their reasoning was, buy PS3 for GTA4 , and have a PS3 for MGS4 and the other exclusives. For one of them Bluray was also a major selling point.

For anyone whoh is saying yahoo about a 60/40 360vsPS3 game sales for GTA4 lets be real, PS3 still had a much higher attach rate for this game. Your saying that yourself when you say it is 60/40, because of the size of the install bases.

anyways, im done my fanyboyish fant.

NATO_Duke: May 12th 2008; 12:37PM

See my reply to unboring below - where he reposted this post of his. I'm gonna spare you all from the copy/paste routine.

MASTUR CHEEF (Yes I pay for Xbox live you cheap ass scrub): May 12th 2008; 12:59PM

@unboring

That was a long one next time keep it short just say:

I hate the Xbox360 and anything that it represents and I'll believe anything that Michael Pachter says, just so I can feel better about having a PS3.

You see that wasn't hard try it next time buddy.

Maverick Saturn: May 12th 2008; 11:18AM

Whatever the weather trevor...

SoulBlade: May 12th 2008; 11:21AM

Oh Pachter... I think it just depends on the side of the bed he rolls out of. Not sure if he saw that GTA was selling more on 360...

I find this more amusing anyway..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFF-vCGahmU

It's GameTrailers exposed! ;) Surprised Joystiq hasn't reported it (unless I missed it)

xFenixKnightx: May 12th 2008; 11:22AM

Does this idiot get a bonus if hes right or something? Who cares! Like Nato_Duke said, no matter what we all continue to play what we like more anyway. Either way I think he is going to be wrong, again.

Maverick Saturn: May 12th 2008; 11:23AM

I predict pacher will steal Angelina Jolie away from Brad Pitt next month and they will have four more kids, Angelina will find a new found obsession with Bugatti Veyrons and Brad will get back with Jennifer all after Mariah Carey reveals her new album 'I hate singing for you bastards' and gets sued for her constant use of the 'F' word in each of the albums track despite having no certificate warning buyers on the front.

There, I think mine is more believable ^^

Richard Mitchell: May 12th 2008; 11:28AM

I think it would be more appropriate if a waggle thirst were "unshakeable."

It's both true and a pun :)

Dr. Zoidberg: May 12th 2008; 11:29AM

I predict that Pachter will make more predictions

xFenixKnightx: May 12th 2008; 11:32AM

You win the internetz!!! :)

Grant: May 12th 2008; 4:43PM

Ding!

DrNicodemus: May 12th 2008; 11:31AM

How many times can one person be wrong and still make headlines with their predictions?

RudyHuxtable: May 12th 2008; 11:32AM

Listen, it should come as no surprise that the PS3 may be outselling the 360, but that's because 360 owners want a cheap blu-ray player.

Makatsu: May 12th 2008; 11:34AM

Michael Pachter is awful at predicting this stuff. He predicted the PS3 would sell 150k more then the 360 a few months back and the actual figure was 360 beat it by something like 10k. The man is a joke.

colinbell: May 12th 2008; 11:35AM

Doesnt matter. PS3 sales keeping pace with 360 in the only remaining 360 stronghold is a bad blow - keeping in mind the 360 has shot its bolt, all its best titles out (do you think someone who hasnt bought a 360 already for Gears+Halo3+ME+Forza2 will buy one for a Gears sequel?) zero impact of much vaunted GTA4 DLC. While the best for the PS3 - MGS, FF, Resistance 2, and many others, virtually 80% of the PS3 exclusive library - still to come.

And saying the wii sold more than PS3 / 360 is like saying that more people bought mobile phones. Its no longer competition for either as a gaming console. Wii Fit and 4-5 exlcusives (no matter how good) doesnt give the wii the right to be mentioned in the same line as the other two. Its a cheap lifestyle accessory, to be shown to people and then left to be covered in dust for 3-6 months until, hopefully, the next N 1st party exclusive comes out.

baby sea tuna: May 12th 2008; 11:43AM

Wow...you state opinions as if they were fact and have no real idea what you're talking about...are you sure *you're* not an analyst?!

Makatsu: May 12th 2008; 11:45AM

The fact the PS3 is only outselling the PS3 by 20-40k is a blow to Sony not Microsoft. The 360 has been out a year longer and is still staying close to it. When a console gets to near enough 3 years you would expect the numbers to start to go down. But they are not. They are actually increasing month to month. What matters is the big numbers that you get from the holidays etc.. MS posted a difference of over 1m consoles over the PS3 the past xmas. MS can afford to have the PS3 have the 1st spot but 20-40k a month up until the festive period. This is when MS have their exclusives of the year out. I would expect the 360 to trounce the PS3 again this xmas which makes the tiny difference in monthly sales hurt PS3 more.

xFenixKnightx: May 12th 2008; 11:51AM

"do you think someone who hasnt bought a 360 already for Gears+Halo3+ME+Forza2 will buy one for a Gears sequel?"

No, I think ALOT of people are waiting for both 360 and PS3 to get to at least $199.00 or somehere around that range ya jackass. Its the reason PS2's keep selling. Because the price kept lowering. Anyone that thinks 360 has reached its peek here in the States is a moron!

NATO_Duke: May 12th 2008; 12:08PM

Just to show you some weakness in your logic:

"(do you think someone who hasnt bought a 360 already for Gears+Halo3+ME+Forza2 will buy one for a Gears sequel?) zero impact of much vaunted GTA4 DLC. While the best for the PS3 - MGS, FF, Resistance 2, and many others, virtually 80% of the PS3 exclusive library - still to come."

So people wont buy the 360 for a sequel of GoW, but they will buy a PS3 for a sequel of Resistance? or FF? Hypocrite much?

People will buy a console for sequels, whether it be made by Sony or MS.

The Sound: May 12th 2008; 3:38PM

I'm going to buy a 360 in time for Gears 2, and possibly Banjo 3 if and when that comes out. (looking good from the looks of it.)

Brodie-san: May 12th 2008; 11:39AM

FLAME ON!

andyg8180: May 12th 2008; 11:44AM

Anal-yst.... huh huh...

stev0360: May 12th 2008; 11:48AM

@ Colinbell

How will resistance 2 sell PS3's but Gears 2 won't sell more 360's?

Ghaleon: May 12th 2008; 11:49AM

Is he talking about just the U.S.? If so, I guess he hasn't seen the 360 vs. Sony GTA sales numbers yet.

EMaster: May 12th 2008; 12:01PM

Man, Pachter is a man that makes hundreds of thousands, if not, millions of dollars a year being the "top gaming analyst". I sometimes feel he is telling this so that people will believe him and ffollow his advise and then give the "rea" advice to his paying clients. I dunno man. Pachter used to be good but now I question his judgement. Maybe he's getting old?

Martez: May 12th 2008; 12:13PM

Or maybe people reporting his predictions as big news just paint him being wrong as worse than it is.

Martez: May 12th 2008; 12:10PM

Give him a break, you goons. His job isn't to make headlines being right or wrong. If he was so awful at his predictions he'd be losing his clients' money and wouldn't still have a job. It's not the end of the world.

PojoMofo: May 12th 2008; 12:20PM

exactly, his job is to make his clients money, which he obviuosly doesn as he is the most famous "Analyst" in the business.

EMaster: May 12th 2008; 12:38PM

Well PojoMofo, how do we know this is wha he is telling his clients? I am not saying he's wrong but people are paying hima hefty sum to make the predictions. We are paying NOTHING, Joystiq Paid nothing as well as any other place reporting this is not paying Pachter to "reveal" this prediction. what I'm saying his don;t follow the man's free advise. There is a reason he is making 6 figures a year. You get what you pay for. that's all I'm saying.